Published On: Tue, Mar 14th, 2017

USD/JPY: the consolidation of the upward trend


Current trend

In the end of last week the pair grew significantly and reached the key resistance level of 115.50 due to the investors’ interest to the USD growth. After the growth the dollar lowered due to the Nonfarm Payrolls index release, which was below the previous values. The pair restored part of its loss, being corrected to the level of 114.50. Now the USD against the JPY reversed into the sideway stage of the consolidation due to the absence of the key macroeconomic releases. The Retail Sales data, key indices, the FRS interest rate decision and the FRS press-conference are worth traders’ attention this week.

Support and resistance

Tomorrow the USD can significantly grow due to the expectation of the FRS interest rate decision and the USA FRS press conference. The traders are waiting for the clear signal about the further interest rate rise. In addition, the JPY is weak: as the pair reversed into the upward trend, the investors sell the Japanese currency. The carry trade positions volume is high, which presses the JPY. Technically the pair is in the upward channel, which is the factor to increase long positions. The indicators support the main forecast of growth, the MACD long positions volume continues to grow, the Bollinger Bands indicator are pointed upwards.

Support levels: 114.50, 114.00, 113.50, 113.15, 112.65, 112.35, 112.00, 111.50.

Resistance levels 115.15, 116.10, 116.50, 117.00, 118.30.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current level with the target at 116.10, 116.50, stop loss is at 114.20.

Forex Analysis

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